Recent Poll Shows Harris Ahead of Trump as Democratic National Convention Set to Start

With the Democratic National Convention set to begin, a fresh poll by CBS News/YouGov reveals Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House, revealing a tight contest as the Democrats gather to formally nominate Harris as their presidential candidate.

Harris and Trump are even across the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College, and now Harris has a 3-point edge nationally.

The late-changing campaign has also opened an historic dynamic, a race within the race to define both Harris and the key issues.

Trump, for his part, keeps a lot of his advantages: he leads with people who say the economy is a major factor, and he leads with voters who say they aren’t doing as well financially.

Yet voters tell us it’s about more issues than that — abortion, the state of democracy, the border among them — and the contest is marked by a pronounced gender gap between men and women and very different views of which candidate would help them.

Heading into the convention, many voters are still learning about Harris, creating a crucial test for the party this week. A third says they don’t yet know what she stands for. Most voters think her views are similar — but not entirely the same — as Joe Biden’s. And she’s somewhat — but not entirely — seen as connected to Mr. Biden’s economy.

Democrats have continued to close the gap with Republicans in expressing their intention to vote; today, they are effectively even with Republicans in saying so.

Behind the gender-gap election

The gender gap has grown a little more and is approaching 2020 levels now. But it’s more than a vote break. It underpins very different priorities and perceptions.

First, women are more likely than men to see Harris as someone who “fights for people like you” a lot. And women are likelier to see Harris than Trump as fighting for people like them.

Second, views on gender equality efforts connect to voting.

People who think efforts at promoting gender equality between men and women are going too far in America today are voting overwhelmingly for Trump. That’s especially the case for men who think so.

Those who think efforts to promote equally aren’t going far enough or are about right are for Harris.

Third, women help Harris on the economy more than they did Mr. Biden.

Though still trailing Trump on the issue, Harris is doing 8 points better than Mr. Biden was in June among women who say the economy is a major factor for them. She’s effectively even with Trump now among this group. She is also 7 points better from where Mr. Biden was in June among women who say inflation is a major factor.

How tied is she to Biden’s economy?

The economy has long been seen as bad, but Harris’ role as vice president is only somewhat tied to it.

Most voters across party lines say Harris’ decisions as vice president have impacted the U.S. economy at least some, but few say they have had “a lot” of impact.

Meanwhile, Trump leads in perceptions of being able to make food and grocery prices go down. This was measured largely prior to Harris laying out inflation plans in a Friday speech. However that sentiment looks to be driven more by general confidence than by any particular policy.

When we follow up with voters who think Trump winning means lower grocery prices for them and ask why, most say it’s mainly because of a “general confidence” they have in Trump rather than specific policies they’ve heard him propose.

Whether Trump can keep or expand that gap, or Harris can start to close it, could be another key item to watch at the convention and in the coming weeks.

How tied is she to the border?

Trump remains overwhelmingly seen by voters as having policies that would reduce border crossings.

Trump also leads among those who say the border is a major factor in their vote. In fact it is the largest lead he has among any issue group, even higher than inflation. (That’s partially because Republicans overwhelmingly call it a factor.)

Harris is somewhat, but not entirely, tied to U.S. border policy: a third think her decisions as vice president had “a lot” to do with the current situation. While this is largely driven by Republicans, this is higher than the number of voters that connect her decisions as vice president to the economy.

But border crossing attempts are reportedly down, and the percentage of voters calling the border a crisis, while still high, is down slightly from the spring.

For all that, so much of this contest is already locked in. Very few voters express openness to considering another candidate — more evidence this will probably be decided by turnout.

So, for Democrats, the convention will in part be about maintaining that enthusiasm among the base.

Updated state-level estimates from CBS News’ statistical model show close races in all seven battlegrounds — they are all well within the margin of error, with both Harris and Trump in position to win if the election were today.

The 2024 election landscape is complex, setting the stage for the dynamic Democratic convention where the party, alongside Republicans, will compete to define the key issues that will shape the election.