Indonesia plans to cap its emissions growth at 23% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, primarily through forest and peatland conservation, Bloomberg reports, citing Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq.
This target, which the nation expects to submit to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by mid-February, projects annual greenhouse gas emissions to reach between 1.3 and 1.4 billion tons in a decade.
The plan has already drawn criticism for its strong reliance on forests to absorb carbon dioxide, while setting relatively modest goals for reducing emissions from major polluting industries in the short term. Although large ecosystems can act as carbon sinks, Indonesia’s forests have historically been net emitters due to deforestation, releasing more than 300 million tons of carbon annually between 2001 and 2023, according to Global Forest Watch.
Despite this, the Indonesian government aims to transform its forests into net carbon absorbers by 2030, a critical component of its emissions reduction strategy. However, an analysis by Climate Action Tracker in November suggests that even with forestry and land use initiatives, Indonesia would need to cut overall emissions by 51% by 2035 from 2019 levels to align with the Paris Agreement’s goals.
Minister Nurofiq emphasized that the new plan will leverage forestry and land use programs, such as peatland conservation and mangrove planting, to achieve its emissions targets. He expressed confidence in the “solid” potential of Indonesia’s jungles, also highlighting potential new financing through carbon credit trading as soon as March.
The nation’s climate policies are currently under scrutiny, particularly following the election of President Prabowo Subianto in October. There are concerns about potential shifts in green policies related to deforestation for agriculture and coal usage. As one of the world’s largest polluters, Indonesia plays a pivotal role in achieving the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Under the Paris Agreement, signatory nations are required to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, outlining their emissions reduction plans for the following decade.
