China’s population continued its downward trend in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline and underscoring the country’s growing demographic challenges, Al Jazeera reports.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the population decreased by 1.39 million over the past 12 months, reaching 1.408 billion, as the number of deaths continues to surpass births.
This persistent decline is a worrying trend for the world’s second-largest economy, especially given that China’s population has been steadily decreasing since the 1980s. The year 2022 was particularly significant, as it marked the first time deaths outpaced births since 1961, a period of devastating famine during the “Great Leap Forward.”
Despite Beijing’s efforts to reverse the falling birth rate, the long-term trend appears to be entrenched. The NBS itself acknowledged the challenges facing the country, stating in its report, “We must be aware that the adverse effects brought by the external environment are increasing, the domestic demands are insufficient, some enterprises have difficulties in production and operation, and the economy is still facing difficulties and challenges.”
The Chinese government has attempted various strategies to encourage childbirth, ranging from social pressure, such as labeling unmarried women as “leftovers,” to more direct interventions, like making divorce and abortion harder to obtain. Financial incentives, like subsidies to help with childcare costs, have also been offered.
While marriages saw a 12.4% year-on-year increase in 2023 following the pandemic, and a brief rebound in births was noted in some regions in early 2024, these proved to be temporary effects. Even the auspicious “Year of the Dragon” in 2024, which typically sees a rise in births across Asia, failed to reverse the overall downward trend.
China officially ended its decades-long “one-child policy” in 2016, which had contributed to a skewed gender ratio due to a cultural preference for male children. Although families are now permitted to have three children since 2021, the high cost of living in urban areas, a slowing economy, and widespread youth unemployment are making the prospect of raising children less attractive for many young Chinese.
While the Chinese economy met government predictions with 5% growth in 2024, forecasts indicate a continued slowdown in GDP growth in the coming years, adding to the economic pressures facing families.
In response to the growing demographic crisis, the government has also begun to implement policies to raise the mandatory retirement age. Men will gradually retire at 63 instead of 60, while women in managerial and technical positions will retire at 58 instead of 55, and all other women workers will retire at 55.
China is not alone in facing this demographic challenge. Several other East Asian nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, are also experiencing population decline due to similar factors, including stringent immigration policies and restrictions on unmarried women’s access to fertility treatments, like IVF.
