Study: Gaza Death Toll Significantly Underreported, May Be 41% Higher Than Official Count
A new peer-reviewed study published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet suggests that the official Palestinian death toll in Gaza from Israel’s war may be significantly underestimated, potentially by as much as 41 percent in the first nine months of the conflict, Al Jazeera reports.
The research, conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, attributes the undercount to the unraveling of Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure during the war.
Using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, the researchers aimed to provide a more accurate estimate of deaths caused by traumatic injuries resulting from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024.
Up to June 30, the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Hamas-run Gaza had reported 37,877 deaths. However, the new study, drawing data from the ministry, an online survey, and social media obituaries, estimates that the actual number of traumatic injury deaths lies between 55,298 and 78,525, with a best estimate of 64,260. This suggests that the Ministry’s count was underreported by approximately 41 percent.
The study further reveals that 59.1 percent of those killed were women, children, and individuals over the age of 65. The research did not provide an estimate for Palestinian fighters among the casualties.
The study’s findings highlight the devastating impact of the conflict, with the best estimate of deaths representing 2.9 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population, “or approximately one in 35 inhabitants.” Importantly, the estimated toll only reflects deaths from traumatic injuries. The researchers note that the actual death toll is likely higher, as it does not include deaths resulting from lack of healthcare, food shortages, or those missing and presumed buried under rubble.
According to the latest figures from the Gaza Health Ministry, since October 7, 2023, at least 46,006 Palestinians have been killed, with 109,378 wounded. The war began after Hamas-led attacks into Israel resulted in the deaths of at least 1,139 people and the capture of more than 200 hostages.
In the early months of the war, the Health Ministry’s death toll was solely based on bodies brought to hospitals. Later, they expanded data collection through an online survey distributed to Palestinians inside and outside of Gaza, asking for information on names, ages, sex, locations, and reporting sources for deaths.
The study in The Lancet underscores that while the Palestinian Health Ministry’s electronic death record system had previously been reliable, it has significantly deteriorated due to Israel’s military campaign, which included raids on hospitals, damage to healthcare facilities, and disruptions to digital communications.
The study’s publication comes as Gaza’s healthcare system is on the brink of collapse. On Thursday, Gaza health officials stated that Al-Aqsa, Nasser, and European hospitals are facing imminent closure due to repeated Israeli attacks and supply blockades. The Kamal Adwan, Indonesian, and al-Awda hospitals have already been forced to close.
Israel has repeatedly stated that it takes significant measures to avoid civilian deaths and alleges that Hamas uses hospitals as cover for its operations, claims which Hamas denies.
