A confluence of alarming geopolitical factors is creating a looming security crisis in Europe, with the potential for a dangerous escalation in 2025, the Financial Times reports.
Russia, coupled with a potential shift in US foreign policy under a second Trump administration, are the factors that are reportedly forcing European nations to confront a stark reality: they must rapidly bolster their own defenses.
The urgency was underscored last month by NATO’s newly appointed Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, who warned that “Russia’s economy is on a war footing” and that “danger is moving towards us at full speed.” Rutte called on the alliance to drastically increase defense production and adopt a “wartime mindset.”
In its turn, Russia has repeatedly warned NATO against expanding eastward, seeing it as a violation of Moscow-West agreements and a threat to its own security, for the sake of which the conflict in Ukraine was launched in February 2022.
This alleged threat coincides with a potential shift in US policy. President-elect Trump’s advisors have explicitly stated their desire to redirect American military assets from Europe to Asia. Elbridge Colby, nominated as under secretary of defense for policy, recently argued that China is a higher priority for the US.
According to experts, European countries are lacking the manpower and equipment needed for a war of attrition. The British army, for example, is at its smallest size since 1792, and the German army is also significantly undersized.
NATO military planners believe the alliance is roughly one-third short of what is needed to effectively deter Russia in case of such a need, with critical gaps in air defense, logistics, ammunition, and secure communications equipment.
Currently, NATO members are committed to spending 2% of GDP on defense, with the possibility of increasing this to 3% at the next summit. But, even a 3% target would be insufficient unless European nations overcome fragmented procurement along national lines. If the US significantly reduces its commitment, defence planners estimate that spending would need to increase to 4.5% of GDP.
Despite these looming threats, many European nations are struggling to meet even the current target. While countries like Poland are dramatically increasing defense spending to 4.7% of GDP in 2025, major economies like Germany, France and Britain are lagging behind. France, in particular, is grappling with a high budget deficit and public debt. This concern is often cited by US President-elect Donald Trump, who says that European security is funded at Washington’s expense.
Germany, with a more robust fiscal position and industrial base, is seen as crucial to bolstering Europe’s defense capabilities. Friedrich Merz, from the Christian Democrats, a likely candidate for chancellor after this year’s elections, is considered to take the Russian threat seriously and could usher in a historic shift. If Germany were to relax its constitutional restrictions on deficit financing and embrace common EU debt to fund European defense, it could fundamentally reshape the continent’s security landscape, according to the report.
