2024 on Track to Be Hottest Year on Record, EU Scientists Warn

Global temperatures exceed critical 1.5°C threshold as extreme weather events escalate.

According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 is set to become the hottest year on record, with global temperatures surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) increase above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

This marks a critical milestone in global climate change, as the 1.5°C threshold is widely regarded as a key limit to avoid the most severe impacts of warming.

The announcement follows data from January to November, confirming that 2024 is on track to surpass the previous record set in 2023. While global temperatures typically fluctuate due to natural phenomena like El Niño and La Niña, scientists say the primary driver of this sustained warming trend is human-induced climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

The impacts of this record-breaking heat have been felt around the world. Severe droughts struck Italy and South America, while fatal floods inundated parts of Nepal, Sudan, and Europe. Heatwaves in Mexico, Mali, and Saudi Arabia claimed thousands of lives, and destructive cyclones hit the US and the Philippines.

“Scientific studies have confirmed the fingerprints of human-caused climate change on all of these disasters,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London.

Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, called the new records “terrible news for people and ecosystems.” She highlighted that the rapid pace of warming could outstrip the ability of species to adapt, potentially leading to food chain disruptions and agricultural challenges.

“More species will go extinct, which disrupts natural food webs they’re a part of… Agriculture will suffer as pollinators decline and pests flourish,” Francis warned.

While 2023 was previously the hottest year on record, 2024 has seen an even greater temperature spike. Typically, global temperatures rise during El Niño events, which bring warmer-than-usual waters to the surface of the Pacific Ocean. However, the El Niño that contributed to 2023’s record heat ended earlier this year.

What is surprising to scientists is that the usual cooling phase known as La Niña, which often follows El Niño, failed to materialize. Without this natural cooling effect, global temperatures remained elevated.

Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan, described the persistence of high temperatures as “a little perplexing” and “scary.” He noted that in previous decades, La Niña typically brought temperatures down, but that has not happened this time.

“One explanation is that El Niño releases more heat to the atmosphere because of warmer ocean waters, and then we’re not getting the cooling effect that, in decades gone by, helps bring the temperature back down… This year is such a big jump following yet another jump, and that’s a scary thing,” Overpeck explained.

Perhaps most concerning is that 2024 will likely be the first year on record in which average global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The 2015 Paris Agreement set the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to keep it under 1.5°C. Scientists have since emphasized that breaching the 1.5°C threshold increases the risk of catastrophic weather events, sea-level rise, and ecosystem collapse.

The Copernicus report clarified that breaching this threshold for a single year does not necessarily mean that the Paris Agreement has been violated. However, it is a stark signal that more ambitious climate action is urgently needed.

“This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever,” said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus.

The report revealed that November 2024 was the second-warmest November ever recorded, second only to November 2023. The global average temperature for November 2024 was 14.10°C (57.38°F), and the average for the year so far is 0.14°C higher than the same period in 2023.

The main cause of climate change, according to scientists, is the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. These greenhouse gases trap heat, driving global temperatures higher.

Oceans play a critical role in this process, as they absorb about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases. As ocean temperatures rise, they release heat and water vapor back into the atmosphere, which can amplify warming. Experts noted that Antarctic sea ice levels in November were 10% below average, another record low. This is significant because sea ice reflects sunlight, helping to regulate the planet’s temperature.

Additionally, the world is currently in a neutral climate phase — neither El Niño nor La Niña is in effect — raising questions about why temperatures remain so high. Friederike Otto cautioned that even if a La Niña event were to form in 2025, it would not necessarily return temperatures to “safe” or “normal” levels.

“While 2025 might be slightly cooler than 2024, if a La Niña event develops, this does not mean temperatures will be ‘safe’ or ‘normal’… We will still experience high temperatures, resulting in dangerous heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and tropical cyclones,” she explained.

The urgent need for climate action has been reinforced by these findings. Two weeks ago, the United Nations announced a $300 billion climate fund to help developing nations address the costs of climate-related disasters. While the fund was seen as a positive step, some countries criticized it as insufficient given the scale and frequency of climate disasters.

Many countries have pledged to reduce their CO2 emissions to “net zero” by mid-century, meaning they will remove as much CO2 from the atmosphere as they emit. But despite these pledges, global CO2 emissions are expected to hit a record high this year.

According to climate experts, cutting emissions is the only way to halt the warming trend. While the world has seen temporary warming from natural phenomena like El Niño, human-induced climate change has become the dominant factor.

The forecast for 2025 remains uncertain. If a La Niña event develops, it may temporarily lower temperatures, but the long-term trend of rising global heat is unlikely to reverse.

Experts warn that urgent and far-reaching climate action is required to meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement. This includes reducing reliance on fossil fuels, investing in renewable energy, and protecting natural ecosystems that absorb CO2, such as forests and wetlands.

“The pace of warming is so fast that plants and animals cannot adapt as they always have during previous changes in the Earth’s climate,” Jennifer Francis emphasized.

“More species will go extinct, which disrupts natural food webs. Agriculture will suffer, and coastal communities will face the threat of rising sea levels.”

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.