Europe is bracing for a potentially harsh winter, with forecasts predicting temperatures below those of the past two years, raising serious concerns about energy security and escalating costs, Bloomberg reports.
The colder-than-average weather, coupled with already depleted gas reserves, threatens to exacerbate the ongoing energy crisis triggered by the conflict in Ukraine.
Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), analyzed by Bloomberg, indicates that temperatures from now until March are expected to remain largely below those seen in 2021 and 2022. This is likely to drive heating demand to its highest level since the war began, according to Maxar Technologies Inc. However, it’s important to note that while colder than the recent past, temperatures are still predicted to remain above typical seasonal norms.
Despite the forecast for mostly mild conditions across much of northern and central Europe (per Maxar meteorologist Matthew Dross), the vulnerability remains. A prolonged cold snap could severely strain already elevated gas and power prices. This risk is amplified by the potential halt in gas flows through Ukraine from January 1st, a time when temperatures typically reach their lowest points.
Europe’s gas storage sites are already experiencing faster-than-usual withdrawals due to the current cold and low-wind conditions. This rapid depletion raises significant concerns about sufficient reserves for the remainder of winter and the crucial gas restocking season next summer.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Any escalation in the fighting could further disrupt energy supplies and add to the existing risks. The potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, which weakens the polar vortex and allows colder air to reach lower latitudes, is also being closely monitored.
