Trump Edges Out Harris Among Arab Americans in Tight Race, War in Gaza Fuels Concerns for Democrats

A new poll suggests that Donald Trump is narrowly ahead of Kamala Harris among Arab American voters, a significant finding as the US presidential election enters its final stretch, Al Jazeera reports.

This lead, according to the Arab News/YouGov poll released Monday, comes as the ongoing war in Gaza appears to be impacting Democratic support among a key demographic in a crucial battleground state.

The poll, conducted among 500 Arab Americans with a margin of error of ±5.93%, reveals Trump leading Harris 45% to 43%. Notably, Trump is also seen as more capable of resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, garnering 39% of the vote compared to Harris’s 33%.

While both candidates are tied at 38% on who would be better for the Middle East “in general,” the poll highlights the significance of the Israel-Palestine issue for Arab Americans, with 29% of respondents identifying it as their biggest concern. This surpasses concerns about the economy (21%) and racism and discrimination (13%).

The poll further reveals that Trump is perceived as more supportive of Israel’s current government than Harris by a six-point margin, a perception that could potentially bolster his standing among pro-Israel voters.

The poll underscores concerns for Democrats about the potential ramifications of President Biden’s stance on the war in Gaza. The Arab American Institute’s poll earlier this month found a virtual tie between Trump and Harris (42% to 41%), but Harris’s support was 18 points lower than Biden’s in 2020.

Arab American voters are seen as vital for Harris’s election prospects due to their high concentration in Michigan, a key swing state. Michigan, home to the largest Arab American community in North America and the first Arab-majority US city, Dearborn, could significantly impact the election outcome.

Further highlighting this trend, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan’s first city with an all-Muslim government, endorsed Trump in September, calling him a “man of principles” and “the right choice.”