While China maintains a neutral stance publicly, conversations within Beijing circles suggest a preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election, Bloomberg reports, citing experts.
The desire for continuity, particularly as China navigates economic challenges, seems to be driving this sentiment.
US-China relations have shown signs of stabilization in the past year, despite significant disagreements over issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Biden administration’s technology export controls. This relative calm has been attributed to consistent, low-key talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, which have helped manage conflict and pave the way for a potential Biden-Xi Jinping meeting later this year.
China views the US relationship as improved compared to the tense period following Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit and the alleged Chinese spy balloon incident, but still not ideal. A Harris presidency, in their view, would allow the Chinese government to build upon this fragile stability and create a somewhat predictable external environment. This is particularly crucial as China grapples with deflationary pressures stemming from its efforts to cool down an overheated property market.
“It’s a common view among Chinese experts that Harris means more continuity, at least in the first one or two years of her presidency,” said Zhu Junwei, a former PLA researcher and now Director of American Research at Grandview Institution in Beijing. “While Trump means a wider scope of possibilities, better or worse, with lots of surprises and potentially more trouble for China, the US itself, its allies, and even the whole world.”
While China emphasizes neutrality and US officials claim no evidence of concerning Chinese interference in the presidential election, recent reports suggest Beijing might be seeking to influence congressional races, targeting candidates perceived as detrimental to its interests on issues like Taiwan.
The upcoming US election, therefore, carries significant implications for China’s economic recovery and its relationship with the US. While China may prefer a more predictable Harris presidency, the potential for Trump’s return and his unpredictable policies casts a shadow over this calculation.
