Gerontologist Jay Olshansky is challenging the popular notion of humans routinely living to 120, even 150 years old, calling it “made-up numbers” with no scientific basis in an interview with CNN.
Olshansky, a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, has been a staunch critic of exaggerated longevity predictions for decades. He and his coauthors sparked controversy in the 1990s when they predicted that increases in life expectancy would slow down, arguing that medical interventions, while valuable, were not a magic bullet for longer lives.
Now, a new study published in the journal Nature Aging, co-authored by Olshansky, confirms their earlier predictions. Analyzing lifespan data from ten major countries, the research found that female children born in 2019 have a 5.1% chance of reaching 100 years of age, while males have a mere 1.8% chance.
“We’ve reached a plateau,” Olshansky said. “The idea that people will routinely live to 150 years is simply not supported by the data.”
He points out that the only documented case of someone reaching 122 years of age was Jeanne Calment, born in 1875 when life expectancy was significantly lower.
Olshansky attributes the slowing of lifespan gains to the dramatic rise in obesity and related diseases like type 2 diabetes. He argues that while modern medicine has successfully extended lifespan by treating these conditions, it has not fundamentally altered the aging process itself.
“We’ve created a generation where, due to obesity, children may live shorter lives than their parents,” he says. “It’s clear that while medical advancements are remarkable, they are not a substitute for addressing the root causes of disease and promoting healthy lifestyles.”
Olshansky emphasized that the majority of people living into their 70s, 80s, and beyond are doing so thanks to medical interventions.
“We’re living on manufactured time,” he said. “While these interventions have been incredibly effective, they don’t necessarily translate into a fundamental shift in our biological aging process.”
While Olshansky acknowledges the potential of ongoing research in geroscience, he urges caution against overhyping its potential for radical life extension. He calls for a more realistic and evidence-based approach to discussions about longevity, prioritizing prevention and healthy living over unrealistic promises of immortality.
