Despite ongoing US sanctions, Russia’s crude oil exports have remained relatively stable, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs.
The latest round of sanctions aimed at reducing Russia’s oil revenues have not significantly disrupted its ability to export oil, the investment bank reports. One contributing factor is that higher freight rates have led to an increase in non-sanctioned vessels transporting Russian crude. Preliminary data suggests that Russian oil exports have held steady.
Additionally, a widening discount on ESPO crude—oil shipped from Russia to the Asia-Pacific region via the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline—has created strong incentives for price-sensitive traders and refiners. This discount is helping to offset the impact of the sanctions, making Russian crude more attractive despite the restrictions. Goldman Sachs estimates that Russian oil revenues have seen a modest increase since the announcement of the new sanctions.
The analysts also noted that the sanctions’ main objective is to reduce Russia’s oil revenues. However, the bank believes that Western policymakers are likely to prioritize maximizing the discount on Russian crude rather than significantly cutting the volume of oil being exported. As such, even with sanctions in place, Russia’s crude exports have remained resilient.
In the broader oil market, crude prices have seen some fluctuations. Oil prices dipped slightly in early trading amid concerns over geopolitical risks and trade tensions, particularly after US President Donald Trump called for the imposition of tariffs on Colombia. These concerns, combined with weaker-than-expected manufacturing data from China, have placed downward pressure on oil prices. However, despite the challenges, crude remains higher compared to earlier in the year, supported by previous sanctions on Russian oil that have led to tighter supplies and increased prices.
The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg contributed to this report.
