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How Trump Could Shape Interest Rates: Indirect Pathways to Lower Borrowing Costs

How Trump Could Shape Interest Rates: Indirect Pathways to Lower Borrowing Costs
Fabrice Coffrini / AFP via Getty
  • PublishedJanuary 25, 2025

President Donald Trump has been vocal about his desire for lower interest rates, framing it as a key element to support economic growth and reduce borrowing costs for Americans.

While the president does not directly control interest rates, his influence through policy decisions and Federal Reserve appointments plays a significant role in shaping the economic conditions that ultimately determine rate trends.

During a virtual address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump emphasized his preference for lower rates, stating:

“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

His comments underscore his belief that lower rates could benefit the economy, particularly as falling oil prices reduce inflation pressures.

In the Oval Office, Trump reiterated this position, saying he would consider communicating directly with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to advocate for rate cuts. While the Federal Reserve is an independent body, Trump’s approach reflects his commitment to leveraging all available tools to achieve economic growth.

Though the Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates, Trump can indirectly influence rates in several ways:

  • Appointments to the Federal Reserve: The president has the authority to nominate Fed governors, who play a crucial role in setting monetary policy. Over time, this can shift the Fed’s stance on rates.
  • Fiscal Policies: By reducing budget deficits and managing inflation through prudent fiscal measures, Trump’s administration can create conditions that lead to lower borrowing costs in the long run.
  • Economic Growth Initiatives: Policies aimed at stimulating investment and boosting economic activity can shape global investor sentiment, impacting medium- and long-term rates.

Trump’s advocacy for rate cuts has already influenced financial markets. Following his remarks, US Treasury yields dipped, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.632%. Investors interpreted his comments as a signal for potential future rate adjustments, even though the Fed’s next meeting in late January is not expected to yield an immediate change.

The president’s stance also coincides with broader discussions about inflation and its impact on rates. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink cautioned that significant capital injections into the economy could create inflationary pressures, potentially leading to higher long-term rates. However, Trump’s focus on reducing oil prices and controlling inflation aims to counterbalance these concerns.

Trump’s call for global rate cuts highlights his vision for a more synchronized approach to monetary policy worldwide. His remarks also align with his broader trade agenda, suggesting a willingness to ease tensions with key economic partners like China. A softer stance on tariffs, for example, could improve global economic stability and indirectly support lower rates.

While Trump’s ability to directly lower interest rates is limited, his policies can create the conditions necessary for rate reductions over time. By appointing Fed officials aligned with his economic vision and implementing fiscal policies that promote growth while managing deficits, Trump has laid the groundwork for a favorable interest rate environment.

Axios, the Financial Times, and CNBC contributed to this report.

Written By
Joe Yans