Egg prices, already elevated, are expected to climb further, potentially reaching record levels by the end of 2025, New York Post reports.
The average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs, which stood at $4.15 in December 2024, could rise by as much as 20%, according to Patrick Penfield, a supply chain expert at Syracuse University. This would bring the cost to nearly $5 per dozen, surpassing the previous peak of $4.82 recorded in January 2023.
Two main factors are contributing to this sharp rise: a widespread outbreak of bird flu and the implementation of state laws mandating cage-free egg production.
The current outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has devastated the egg industry. Over 20 million egg-laying hens died in the last quarter of 2024, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported. Unlike previous years, the outbreak has affected all major production systems, including conventional caged, cage-free, and certified organic.
When bird flu is detected, farms are required to cull entire flocks to prevent further spread. This practice has severely impacted supply, as it takes approximately five months for a chicken to mature and begin laying eggs.
“There are no vaccines or treatments for bird flu,” Penfield noted.
The primary defense remains strict biosecurity measures, such as keeping chickens isolated from wild birds, covering enclosures, and minimizing standing water that could attract infected waterfowl.
In addition to supply constraints from the bird flu outbreak, state laws requiring cage-free egg production are driving costs higher. Cage-free systems are typically more expensive to maintain than traditional caged systems.
Lisa Steele, an expert on egg production, explained that while pasture-raised chickens produce higher-quality eggs, these birds face greater exposure to disease. Birds raised with outdoor access are more vulnerable to contracting HPAI from waterfowl and other sources.
Experts like Penfield hope that chickens may eventually develop natural immunity to bird flu, but this is likely years away, if it happens at all.
“If immunity does develop, we don’t yet know if it would protect hens against potential mutations of the virus,” he cautioned.
Until these challenges are addressed, egg prices are likely to remain volatile, with consumers bearing the brunt of rising costs. In the meantime, the combination of biosecurity measures and adjustments in production systems will play a crucial role in stabilizing the industry.
Egg prices have fluctuated significantly in recent years. After reaching $4.82 in January 2023, prices dropped to $2.04 by August of that year, demonstrating the market’s sensitivity to supply chain disruptions and production changes.
