China’s exports reached a record high in 2024, according to state media reports on Monday, providing a much-needed boost to the world’s second-largest economy as it faces both domestic challenges and the potential for trade disruptions under a new US administration, Al Jazeera reports.
The country’s customs data revealed a robust 10.7 percent year-on-year increase in exports, surpassing economists’ expectations. Imports also performed unexpectedly well, rising by 1 percent – their strongest showing since July 2024 – bucking predictions of a decline.
These surprisingly positive figures come as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House on January 20, wielding a populist economic agenda that includes the imposition of significant tariffs on Chinese goods. The looming threat of these tariffs has been a major concern for the Chinese economy, which has already been grappling with slower growth.
Economists warn that Trump’s proposed tariffs would likely lead to higher prices for American consumers and would cut into the profitability of Chinese exporters. UBS analysts estimate that a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports would knock 2.5 percentage points off China’s GDP growth in the following 12 months.
In recent months, Beijing has implemented aggressive economic stimulus measures, including policy rate cuts and relaxed property purchase restrictions, aiming to reinvigorate the economy and achieve its 5 percent GDP growth target. However, these efforts have faced headwinds from a range of issues, including a prolonged real estate crisis, weak consumer spending, and a declining population.
The Chinese economy has been experiencing some of its slowest growth in decades, prompting concerns about its trajectory. Friday will bring the release of the official GDP figures for the fourth quarter and the entirety of 2024, which will provide further insight into the country’s economic performance.
Despite earlier anxieties, the World Bank last month revised its growth forecast for China in 2024 to 4.9 percent, up from its previous forecast of 4.8 percent in June.
