China has approved the construction of a massive hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, a project with the potential to generate three times the power of the Three Gorges Dam, Bloomberg reports.
This move is expected to further strain relations with India due to the river’s course through contested territory and its importance as a water source for India.
The project was confirmed by the official Xinhua News Agency, which reported the approval of a “hydropower project” on the river’s lower reaches without providing specifics. Previous reports indicate that the dam could be the world’s largest, requiring an estimated 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) investment, making it one of history’s most expensive infrastructure projects. The project is also seen as a boost to China’s efforts to revitalize its economic growth.
The Yarlung Tsangpo river, known as the Brahmaputra in India, flows through the disputed Arunachal Pradesh region. This new dam is expected to cause significant tension between the two nations, whose relationship has only recently stabilized following a four-year stalemate after a 2020 border clash.
China’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement to Bloomberg News, said that Beijing had “spent decades studying the development of hydropower project in the lower reaches of Yarlung Tsangpo river.” It pledged to implement measures to ensure safety and environmental protection. It also stated that “there won’t be adverse impact to the downstream” and that it has cooperated with downstream countries on sharing hydrological data, disaster prevention, and emergency response, vowing to continue communication with downstream nations.
However, the dam’s location gives China considerable leverage over water flow into India, potentially becoming a tool for political influence. While both countries have had an exchange mechanism to manage such water issues since 2006, and held a virtual meeting as recently as May 2022, the dam’s sheer scale raises concerns about water security for downstream populations in India.
Hydropower is currently China’s second-largest power source, constituting nearly 14% of the nation’s energy mix last year, according to BloombergNEF data. However, its growth has slowed due to drought conditions exacerbated by global warming, which have unexpectedly cut power output in water-rich provinces.
Analysts had previously considered damming the Yarlung Tsangpo unlikely due to the enormous costs and logistical challenges of operating in such a remote location. Despite these hurdles, China has continued to move forward with the project. In 2020, state media reported that the river’s lower reaches offered the potential for a 70-gigawatt generation capacity, more than triple the Three Gorges Dam.
Environmental concerns also surround the project. Environmentalists have long worried about the potentially irreversible impacts of dam construction in the region, which is home to a national natural reserve and one of China’s top biodiversity hotspots. A 2020 article questioning whether the hydro project would wipe out Tibet’s last tigers was censored on WeChat, highlighting the sensitivity of the project.
