A new report from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggests that life expectancy in the United States will experience only modest improvements over the next few decades, signaling ongoing public health challenges, CNN reports.
According to the forecast, life expectancy in the US is expected to rise slightly from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years by 2050.
The analysis, published in The Lancet, examined the effects of various diseases and health risks on the US and compared the data to over 200 other countries. Researchers found that the US will continue to lag behind most high-income nations, as well as some middle-income countries, in terms of life expectancy. By 2050, the US is projected to fall to 66th place globally, down from 49th in 2022.
Gender disparities in life expectancy are also expected to shrink. The forecast predicts that the US will drop from 51st to 74th in terms of life expectancy for women, and from 51st to 65th for men by 2050.
The modest increase in life expectancy projected for 2050 is largely attributed to improvements in mortality rates related to major causes of death, such as heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. However, researchers believe that addressing key risk factors like obesity, smoking, and drug use could lead to even greater improvements. Reducing these risks could add as much as half a year to life expectancy by 2050.
A significant concern highlighted by the IHME is the rising rates of obesity in the US The forecast estimates that more than 260 million people will be affected by obesity by 2050, a trend that poses a growing risk for chronic diseases and could dramatically affect public health. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, described the increase in obesity as a “public health crisis of unimaginable scale.”
While drug overdose deaths in the US have shown signs of decline, the report notes that the levels of overdose remain alarmingly high and are likely to rise again in the coming years. IHME projects that drug-related mortality in the US will be the highest in the world by 2050, more than twice the rate of Canada, which ranks second.
The report also suggests that significant improvements could be made by addressing key public health issues such as environmental risks, behavioral health, metabolic risks, and childhood nutrition and vaccination. If these areas were targeted effectively, the US could prevent approximately 550,000 deaths in 2050, potentially adding nearly four years to life expectancy, bringing it closer to the projections for Canada.
The findings underscore the urgent need for more effective health strategies and policies. Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, co-senior author of the report, warned that the US must take immediate action to reverse the downward trajectory of future health outcomes.
