Ireland heads to the polls today in a general election that is proving far closer than Prime Minister Simon Harris anticipated when he called the snap vote just three weeks ago, Bloomberg reports.
Harris’s initial surge in popularity following his appointment as Taoiseach seven months ago, coupled with a dip in support for the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, and a generous pre-election budget, appeared to create ideal conditions for a comfortable victory. However, Fine Gael, Harris’s party, has seen a significant drop in support, now running neck and neck with Fianna Fáil, its coalition partner, and Sinn Féin.
While a coalition between the centrist Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil remains the most likely outcome, according to polls, Fine Gael’s thirteen-year tenure in government has left many voters frustrated by persistent issues such as the high cost of living, housing shortages, and a struggling healthcare system. A rise in anti-immigrant sentiment and a backlash against asylum seekers has further complicated the electoral landscape, boosting support for smaller parties and independent candidates.
Polling stations will be open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. Dublin time, with an exit poll released immediately afterward. Counting begins Saturday morning, with initial results expected within hours, although a full count may take several days.
Harris’s campaign has been plagued by missteps, most notably a viral video showing him dismissing the concerns of a disability care worker. While he later apologized, the incident significantly damaged his image. Although he may still secure enough support to form a new coalition, the situation is far from the resounding victory he initially envisioned. Recent polls show a mere two-percentage-point gap between the three main parties. The outcome hinges significantly on the large number of undecided voters, estimated at 19% by the Irish Times.
While a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition, led by either Harris or Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, remains the most probable scenario, it is likely to require the support of a smaller party or independent representatives. Sinn Féin, despite a recent decline in poll numbers, has established a substantial base of support by focusing on housing and infrastructure issues stemming from the 2008 financial crisis. However, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have ruled out a coalition with Sinn Féin, which remains unlikely to secure enough seats to form a government.
The election represents a significant challenge to the century-long dominance of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. In a recent televised debate, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald criticized Martin’s party for its role in the financial crisis and Harris’s government for subsequent austerity measures. Harris has attempted to revitalize Fine Gael’s image, promising “new energy” and leveraging a recent budget featuring substantial tax cuts and spending increases, fueled by record corporate tax revenue. However, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of this tax boom, particularly given potential changes to US policy. Harris has responded by highlighting plans for a new sovereign wealth fund to mitigate these risks.
