With less than a week until the Jakarta gubernatorial election, a surprising shift in the polls indicates a tight race: a new survey from Indikator Politik Indonesia shows Pramono Anung, a senior politician from the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), narrowly leading the contest, Bloomberg reports.
The survey, conducted between November 15th and 21st, polled 1,229 Jakarta residents by telephone. It revealed Anung garnering 42.1% of the intended vote, edging out Ridwan Kamil, the candidate backed by President Prabowo Subianto and his predecessor Joko Widodo, who secured 40.5%. An independent candidate trailed significantly with 4.8% of the vote. The survey has a margin of error of 2.9% at a 95% confidence level.
Despite Anung’s lead, Indikator executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi cautions against predicting a clear winner. around 25% of respondents remain undecided, significantly impacting the likelihood of a first-round victory. Muhtadi explains, “There should be a 5% difference” for a decisive win. Under Indonesian election rules, a runoff will be necessary if no candidate surpasses 50% of the vote on November 27.
Kamil, a former West Java governor and prominent social media figure, enjoys significant backing from the ruling coalition, including President Prabowo and former President Jokowi. His strong support base and endorsements had previously positioned him as the frontrunner.
However, Anung’s recent surge in popularity is attributed to a significant influx of support from followers of Anies Baswedan, a former Jakarta governor and vocal critic of Jokowi. This shift suggests a mobilization of voters dissatisfied with the ruling coalition.
