Western Australia is poised for a surprisingly bountiful wheat harvest, exceeding initial projections despite a concerningly dry start to the season, Bloomberg reports.
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) now forecasts a yield of 10.33 million tons for the 2024/25 season – the third largest on record. This is a significant upward revision from September’s estimates, which predicted a substantially lower output due to insufficient spring rainfall.
The unexpected surge in wheat production offers a potential reprieve amidst global concerns over grain supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine. With wheat futures experiencing their strongest weekly gains in two months due to escalating conflict in the Black Sea region, Australia’s increased export capacity could help alleviate potential shortages.
Michael Lamond, an agronomist and GIWA report writer, attributed the higher-than-expected yields to the resilience of the crops. Despite initial concerns over damaged and yellowing leaves caused by the earlier dry spell, the plants ultimately performed exceptionally well during harvest.
However, the Western Australian harvest has faced recent setbacks. Heavy rains this week have caused delays, and these wet conditions are predicted to persist into next week, according to weather forecaster Maxar.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) previously estimated national wheat production at 31.8 million metric tons for the 2024-25 season – a 23% increase compared to the previous harvest.
