From pro-Palestinian protests clashing with Israeli fans in Amsterdam to ongoing debate over Ukraine aid, the Netherlands is grappling with the fallout of a turbulent year. With the added uncertainty of a second Trump presidency, experts from the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam reveal to Wyoming Star how these global events are shaping Dutch public opinion and the nation’s political landscape.

Amsterdam violence

Amid tensions over the Middle East conflict, violence erupted in Amsterdam earlier this month surrounding a football match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv. The incidents involved antisemitic and Islamophobic attacks, with pro-Palestine protesters clashing with Israeli supporters. The Amsterdam city authorities have launched an investigation, acknowledging a “toxic cocktail” of antisemitism, hooliganism, and anger over the conflict.

Police made numerous arrests, and a partial state of emergency was declared. The public prosecutor will focus on antisemitism as a motive. Officials are also examining claims of prior warnings from Israel about potential trouble. The incident has sparked concerns about rising antisemitism and the impact of the Middle East conflict on public sentiments in the Netherlands.

There have also been reports of excessive police force against Pro-Palestinian activists, with many being vocal about discrimination targeting Pro-Palestinian activists and lobbying Israeli supporters. However, Patrick Overeem, a professor of political science at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, generally dismissed these reports in a conversation with Wyoming Star.

The police have used regular forms of force to end forbidden protests and to arrest perpetrators of vandalism and violence – as they should. Generally speaking, the police is certainly not more pro-Israel than pro-Palestinian.

In the meantime, according to Patrick Mello, a political scientist and a professor at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the unrest led to “overreactions by the authorities” which banned ordinary demonstrations over safety concerns. Additionally, the clashes created a stir in Dutch politics.

Some members of the current far-right government have also used this context [violence in Amsterdam] to make racist remarks and to further divisions within Dutch society. In turn, this led to a government crisis as one party threatened to withdraw from the coalition.

Middle East Picture in Netherlands

The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel triggered a significant escalation of the Middle East conflict, sparking a series of interconnected crises. These include Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza; a multifaceted Yemeni Houthi campaign involving missiles, drones, and a maritime blockade; intensified fighting between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah in Lebanon, creating a new front in the war; Iraqi militia drone attacks against Israel; Israeli airstrikes in Syria; the targeted assassinations of militia leaders; and a relentless exchange of missile, drone, and air strikes between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. The humanitarian situation in both Gaza and Lebanon continues to deteriorate daily, further exacerbating the already deep divisions within the international community regarding Western support for Israel.

The Netherlands, like many Western nations, reflects this internal struggle. Patrick Overeem observes:

“Generally, the academic and media elites are more pro-Palestinian (albeit with exceptions), while the current political elite has a stronger pro-Israel position (albeit with nuances).”

He notes the Dutch government’s multifaceted approach:

“Support for Israel but also for a two-state solution; condemnation of Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations but also support of the Palestinian people (and the Palestinian Authority, however weak), especially those in dire humanitarian need; support of Israel’s right to defend itself but also criticism of West Bank settlers.”

This nuanced stance is mirrored in public opinion. Patrick Mello cites recent polling data from the Volkskrant:

“The current right-wing government has been supportive of the Netanyahu government and its war in Gaza and Lebanon but among Dutch citizens, the largest group of people says that the Netherlands should be more critical of Israel (47% supported this in a recent poll).”

Mello adds that this opinion is largely shaped by political affiliation. Ben Crum, a professor of political science at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, confirms this observation.

“Among the (centre-)left opposition there is certainly concern and criticism of Israeli positions, although internal divisions prevent parties from taking an all too outspoken position.”

Yarin Eski, a professor in public administration at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, provides a concise summary of the situation within the Netherlands:

Our national politics on Gaza are not as monolithic-looking as yours in the US seem to be.

Trump’s Return, Ukraine War and Nuclear Threat for Netherlands

Experts have expressed concerns about a potential second Trump presidency and its implications for the European Union and the Netherlands. Patrick Mello highlighted the threat of increased tariffs.

“[Trump’s] frequent talk about ‘tariffs’ suggests that there will be a repetition of the trade wars that we experienced during his first term, with negative economic impact for everyone involved.”

Patrick Overeem underscored the vulnerability of the Dutch economy.

“The Netherlands has an open economy, it is the second-largest agricultural exporter in the world, and strongly dependent on trade and transport.”

He also raised concerns about NATO.

“It is widely recognized that, for the coming years, militarily Europe is still highly dependent on American protection, although many pro-European argue for strengthening our own defense capacities.”

Regarding international security, Patrick Mello discussed the Ukraine war, noting Trump’s stated intention to cut US funding for Kyiv and swiftly end the conflict.

“If Trump does withhold US support for Ukraine then the country might be overrun by Russia. This will also further destabilize the situation in neighboring countries, including Moldova and Georgia,” he said.

Yarin Eski referenced the Kremlin’s response to the Biden administration’s approval of Ukraine using US-supplied ATACMS missiles against Russia.

Source: CNN/Getty Images

“[Russian President Vladimir Putin’s] administration is now also prepared to do a nuclear attack on countries without nuclear weapons; countries that help Ukraine in attacking Russia. This could become the Netherlands as well, because, officially at least, we have neither nuclear weapons nor nuclear warheads, but we do very well provide military support to Ukraine.

Patrick Overeem echoed concerns about escalation.

Putin may be provoked by military action on Russian territory to further scale up his war efforts in and around Ukraine and increasingly consider himself at war with Western states as well.

However, Patrick Mello downplayed the immediate threat of nuclear escalation, suggesting it is a tactic to deter Western support for Ukraine.

“These discussions have taken place earlier, when debates surrounded howitzers and tanks, and also fighter aircraft. In that light, the recent decisions does not seem that much of a game-changer.”

I also don’t see the risk of a direct involvement of the US or Western European powers at this point.

Nowadays, the Netherlands finds itself at a crossroads. Domestically, the Amsterdam violence surrounding the Ajax-Maccabi Tel Aviv match exposed deep societal divisions and sparked debate over policing tactics and government overreach.

Internationally, the nation grapples with the multifaceted implications of the escalating Middle East conflict, exhibiting a complex and divided public opinion that mirrors the internal struggles within many Western nations. The upcoming presidency Donald Trump adds another layer of uncertainty, with experts warning of potential economic repercussions and raising concerns about the future of NATO and US support for Ukraine, potentially even escalating to a nuclear threat.

The diverse perspectives of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam professors highlight the nuanced and multifaceted challenges facing the Netherlands in navigating these turbulent global events.