ASML Holding NV, the Netherlands-based leader in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, saw a 5% increase in its share price on Thursday as it reiterated its ambitious 2030 revenue targets.
The company projected annual sales between $46.3 billion – $63.4 billion with gross margins of 56%-60%, signaling strong confidence in the long-term growth of the chip industry, largely driven by artificial intelligence (AI).
This affirmation from ASML came as a relief to investors who had been rattled by a recent profit warning and a sales forecast cut for 2025. Following the announcement, ASML’s shares rallied in Amsterdam, though they remain down 3% for the year.
ASML, a critical supplier to leading semiconductor producers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics, is the only company in the world producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. These sophisticated machines are essential for creating the most advanced chips used in AI applications, data centers, and next-generation consumer electronics. As AI continues to revolutionize various industries, ASML’s ability to scale its EUV technology and diversify its offerings is expected to drive substantial growth in the coming years.
“We expect that our ability to scale EUV technology into the next decade and extend our versatile lithography portfolio positions ASML well to contribute to, and leverage, the artificial intelligence opportunity,” said Christophe Fouquet, ASML’s President and CEO, on Thursday.
The company’s 2030 revenue targets underscore its confidence in the AI-driven boom, which it projects will help push global semiconductor sales to over $1 trillion by the end of the decade. ASML’s executives anticipate double-digit growth in demand for its EUV lithography tools each year from 2025 to 2030, as chipmakers race to build more sophisticated semiconductors to keep up with AI advancements.
Despite ASML’s long-term optimism, the company has faced significant challenges recently. ASML revised its 2025 revenue forecast to a range of €30 billion to €35 billion, down from its previous guidance of up to €40 billion. This revision, alongside weak Q3 order intake, sparked a sharp selloff in ASML’s stock last month, temporarily costing it the title of Europe’s most valuable tech company to Germany’s SAP.
ASML’s challenges are partly tied to uneven demand across the semiconductor market. While AI and data center applications are booming, sectors like automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial machinery have faced prolonged slumps as manufacturers scaled back chip orders. This divergence has created a challenging environment for ASML, which also deals with geopolitical pressures affecting its largest markets.
ASML’s ability to capitalize on the AI boom is further complicated by the US government’s ongoing restrictions on advanced chip technology exports to China. The Dutch company has been unable to sell its top-tier EUV lithography machines to Chinese firms due to export restrictions, and the U.S. recently imposed additional limits on ASML’s second-most-advanced tools as well. Despite these challenges, ASML anticipates that China will still account for about 20% of its 2025 revenue.
Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen expressed optimism, stating that the anticipated growth in semiconductor demand and higher spending on lithography technology will fuel continued demand for ASML’s equipment.
“We confirm our capital allocation strategy and expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks,” he added.
Analysts at Jefferies noted that ASML’s reiterated 2030 goals imply accelerated growth from 2025 to 2030, suggesting the company sees the current setbacks as temporary. They believe ASML’s forecasts reflect its confidence in recovering demand beyond AI, driven by longer-term shifts in semiconductor needs across various industries.
ASML’s leadership, including CEO Fouquet, expects a gradual market recovery that will gain momentum well into 2025 and beyond. With its reaffirmed targets, ASML is doubling down on its vision of playing a central role in the evolving semiconductor ecosystem, which is increasingly shaped by advancements in AI and high-performance computing.
With input from Market Watch, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal.
