Harris, Trump Neck-and-Neck in Tight Presidential Race

With less than a week until Election Day, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat, according to the latest polls, Al Jazeera reports.

The outcome of the race is likely to be determined by voter turnout in the seven key swing states.

National Polls Show Tight Race

FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker shows Harris maintains a narrow national lead of around 1.4 points, but this is within the margin of error, indicating the race is highly competitive. Other polls, such as those from The Washington Post, The Economist/YouGov, and TIPP Insights, also show Harris and Trump within a single percentage point of each other.

Swing States Hold the Key

While national surveys offer insights into voter sentiment, the Electoral College will ultimately determine the winner. The seven key swing states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada – hold a combined 93 Electoral College votes.

In these swing states, the race is extremely tight. Harris has a narrow lead in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.

Trump Favored, but Harris Could Pull Ahead

According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, if the current margins hold on election night, Trump is favored to win. However, even a slight shift away from him in these critical states could result in a victory for Harris.

Notably, in the 2020 presidential election, Georgia and Arizona both flipped from Republican to Democratic, indicating that these states can be unpredictable.

Voter Concerns

A recent poll by The Washington Post and George Mason University revealed that many voters are concerned about the potential for violence if Trump loses, recalling the January 6 Capitol riots following his 2020 defeat. Over 50% of voters surveyed expressed worry that Trump supporters could turn violent, while only 31% thought Harris’s supporters would react similarly.