A year after a surprise joint offensive by three powerful ethnic militias, Myanmar’s junta is facing a growing insurgency that has seen them lose significant territory and strategic outposts across the country, The Associated Press reports.
The offensive, dubbed “Operation 1027” and launched on October 27, 2021, has fundamentally shifted the balance of power in the ongoing conflict.
The operation, spearheaded by the Three Brotherhood Alliance – comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army (AA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – has seen the capture of numerous towns and military bases along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.
This initial success sparked a wave of resistance across the country, with other militia groups and the pro-democracy People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) joining the fight. Today, resistance forces control a significant horseshoe-shaped territory, spanning from Rakhine state in the west to the Thai border in the south.
The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, has retreated towards the center of the country, focusing on defending the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city of Yangon. They have suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the strategic city of Laukkai, where over 2,000 troops were captured, including six generals.
The Tatmadaw has managed to claw back some territory, but their control over key areas remains fragile. They have relied heavily on indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery fire, leading to a significant increase in civilian casualties.
The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights reported a 95% rise in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in deaths from artillery strikes since Operation 1027 began. The junta’s tactics have further alienated the population and fueled anti-military sentiment.
With the rainy season ending, the Tatmadaw is expected to launch a counteroffensive, bolstered by 30,000 new recruits. However, resistance forces are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, posing a serious threat to the junta’s control over the country’s economic heartland.
The conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians, with over 3 million internally displaced and 18.6 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.
