Gaza’s Recovery: 350-Year Journey to Pre-War Economic Levels, UN Warns
A new report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has issued a stark warning about the scale of the devastation in Gaza, stating that it could take 350 years for the war-torn territory’s economy to return to its precarious pre-war state, The Associated Press reports.
Prior to the conflict, Gaza was already under a crippling Israeli and Egyptian blockade, imposed after Hamas took control in 2007. Four previous wars and internal divisions between Hamas and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority further hampered its economic prospects. The current conflict has decimated the territory, obliterating entire neighborhoods, destroying infrastructure and leaving mountains of rubble laced with unexploded ordnance.
The report highlights that even after clearing debris and initiating reconstruction efforts, Gaza’s GDP per capita will decline significantly due to population growth, making a meaningful recovery a distant prospect.
The World Bank estimates the damage at $18.5 billion, nearly the combined economic output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022. This figure was calculated before some of the most destructive Israeli ground operations, including those in the southern border city of Rafah.
A separate UN assessment in September based on satellite imagery found that nearly 25% of all structures in Gaza had been destroyed or severely damaged, with over 66% of structures, including over 227,000 housing units, sustaining damage.
The Shelter Cluster, a coalition of aid providers led by the Norwegian Refugee Council, estimated that rebuilding all destroyed homes under the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, a process established after the 2014 war with heavy Israeli surveillance, would take 40 years.
Despite an optimistic projection of a 10% growth rate, the UNCTAD report concludes that recovery would still take decades. Meanwhile, a separate report released by the UN Development Program highlights that with major investment and the lifting of economic restrictions, the entire Palestinian economy, including the West Bank, could be back on track by 2034. However, without these conditions, the outlook aligns with the bleak predictions of UNCTAD.
The ongoing conflict has claimed over 42,000 Palestinian lives, according to local health officials, with over half the deaths attributed to women and children. About 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million population has been displaced, forcing hundreds of thousands into overcrowded and unsanitary tent camps.
