With a potential Donald Trump victory looming in the US presidential election, China is engaging in a flurry of diplomatic activity, attempting to strengthen ties with new allies and partners, particularly those facing economic turmoil, Bloomberg reports.
Beijing’s “charm offensive” comes as a direct response to the potential for Trump’s return to the White House, a scenario that could bring renewed trade tensions and unpredictable economic policies.
“China is trying to preemptively manage potential disruptions from a Trump presidency, which has historically been marked by trade wars and erratic behavior,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.
A Shift in Diplomacy
The diplomatic overtures represent a significant departure from China’s combative diplomacy during Trump’s first term. Key examples include:
• India: A breakthrough agreement to resume patrolling operations along the disputed Himalayan border, ending a four-year standoff and potentially easing punitive measures on Chinese businesses.
• Australia: A significant increase in Australian wine exports to China following the resolution of a dispute over Canberra’s support for a probe of COVID-19’s origins.
• Japan: An agreement paving the way for the lifting of restrictions on Japanese seafood exports after a disagreement over the discharge of treated wastewater from a crippled nuclear power plant.
Motivations and Outcomes
China’s charm offensive is driven by a desire to:
• Hedge Against Trump’s Policies: Many nations are strengthening ties with China as a hedge against potential economic repercussions from US protectionism.
• Offsetting Potential Tensions: Improved relations with allies could mitigate potential tensions with the US and EU, which recently imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
• Stabilize US-China Relations: Despite significant disagreements on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea, US-China relations have shown signs of stability in recent months, with both sides emphasizing responsible management of the relationship.
Expectations and Reactions
Beijing is hopeful for reciprocal benefits from its diplomatic overtures, with expectations for positive responses from its partners. China’s state-controlled media has highlighted the warming ties with Australia, noting the absence of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, unlike the US and EU.
