Despite economic uncertainties and the ongoing election year, retail sales during the 2024 holiday season are projected to increase by up to 3.5% compared to last year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
This growth, while slightly slower than the 3.9% increase seen in 2023, would bring total holiday sales to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. The expected rise mirrors more typical pre-pandemic trends and reflects a normalization in consumer spending patterns.
Retail executives acknowledge several challenges this year, including inflation, a divisive presidential election, and economic volatility. However, they remain optimistic that strong wage growth and resilient consumer spending will drive sales.
“The economy looks much more like a pre-pandemic economy in terms of spending patterns and growth,” said Matthew Shay, NRF’s CEO.
The NRF also forecasts significant growth in e-commerce, with online sales expected to rise by 8-9%, reaching nearly $298 billion. This shift is attributed to increasing consumer preference for online shopping, especially with promotions such as buy now, pay later services, which are projected to contribute $18.5 billion in online sales.
While consumers remain cautious, focusing on essentials like groceries, retailers are heavily promoting discounts and value-based shopping to attract buyers. Companies like Walmart and Target have introduced widespread price cuts, and Kohl’s has launched a new marketing campaign, “When Life Gets Real, Start Here,” aiming to position shopping as a reprieve from election-year stress.
The New York Times and FOX Business contributed to this report.
