ASML, the Netherlands-based chip equipment manufacturer, has provided the first insights into how US export curbs on semiconductor technology will affect its sales in China.
In its earnings report released earlier this week, the company indicated that it expects 2025 net sales to land in the lower half of its previously forecasted range of €30 billion to €35 billion ($32.7 billion to $38.1 billion).
ASML’s Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, explained on Wednesday that the company anticipates a significant drop in sales to China next year, largely due to US export restrictions. These curbs, part of ongoing geopolitical tensions, limit China’s access to advanced chipmaking tools, including ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are critical to producing cutting-edge semiconductors.
China-based customers had previously stockpiled ASML’s less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines in anticipation of these restrictions. However, with these stockpiles now in place, demand in the region is expected to dry up. Sales to China, which accounted for 29% of ASML’s revenue in 2023, are now projected to drop to around 20% by 2025.
This news comes as ASML reported strong third-quarter sales of €7.5 billion but missed expectations for new bookings, which came in at €2.6 billion—well below the forecasted €5.6 billion. The sharp decline in bookings, attributed in part to delays from key customers like Intel and Samsung, sent ASML’s shares plunging 16%, wiping more than $50 billion off its market capitalization.
