As the current bull market reaches its two-year anniversary on October 12, 2024, signs suggest it may have further room to grow.
Since hitting its lowest point in October 2022, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 62%, including a 21.2% increase in 2024, marking 44 record highs this year alone.
Despite concerns from bearish analysts warning that the stock market’s rise toward the 6,000 level could lead to errors and setbacks, Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, remains optimistic. Detrick and his team turned bullish in November 2022, dismissing predictions of a recession and ongoing market struggles. He argues that the US economy is actually gaining strength, and the two-year bull market remains in its early stages.
Historical data supports this view. Detrick points out that the average bull market since 1950 has lasted over five years and delivered gains of more than 180%. He also highlights the fact that the S&P 500 has posted five consecutive months of gains. Historically, a five-month winning streak has resulted in higher stock values one year later in 97% of cases, further boosting optimism for continued growth.
Looking ahead, Detrick believes the bull market has a good chance of celebrating its third anniversary, although he notes that election-year Octobers often bring increased volatility. Even so, November and December tend to be favorable months for stocks, offering additional reassurance to investors.
While Detrick acknowledges the possibility of more modest gains moving forward, he maintains a bullish outlook. According to his analysis, out of 16 previous bull markets, 12 extended beyond their third year, with average gains of around 8% in the third year. This aligns with the typical performance of a stable year in the stock market.
