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Ukraine’s Allies Push for Flexibility as War Enters Third Winter

Ukraine’s Allies Push for Flexibility as War Enters Third Winter
Source: Kremlin via AP; Getty Images
  • PublishedOctober 9, 2024

As Ukraine approaches its third winter of war, allies are detecting a possible shift in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s stance on negotiations, even as he publicly maintains Kyiv’s core demands for and NATO membership, Bloomberg reports.

With Western support showing signs of fatigue and no end to the conflict in sight, there is growing pressure for a more concrete plan towards a negotiated settlement.

Despite Zelensky’s steadfast rejection of any territorial concessions, Ukrainian officials have hinted at a growing recognition of the need for an endgame. This shift in sentiment was to be tested at a meeting hosted by President Joe Biden in Germany, originally scheduled for Saturday, though postponed due to Hurricane Milton.

At the Ramstein Air Base gathering, Zelensky is expected to present his “victory plan,” outlining specific steps for ending the war.

A central element of any future talks will be Ukraine’s NATO membership, an issue that divides allies. With Russia viewing NATO membership as a non-starter, finding a formula that brings all parties to the negotiating table remains a challenge.

The US presidential election in November has also added urgency to the search for a negotiated end to the conflict. While Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has asserted that Ukraine must be involved in any US negotiation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, she has declined to endorse Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. Republican nominee Donald Trump, meanwhile, has promised to end the war quickly if he returns to the White House.

Adding to the pressure for a negotiated solution, Europe is grappling with its own fiscal constraints. Germany, under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has allocated less funding in next year’s budget. France is also facing its own ballooning deficit. Meanwhile, beyond the West, Kyiv has encountered pressure, particularly from the Global South, to actively pursue a peace process that includes Russia. Zelensky’s strategy of isolating Moscow by securing support from countries like China, India, and Brazil has stalled.

Written By
Michelle Larsen