Israel’s Assassination of Hezbollah Leader Sparks Tensions, But No Full-Scale War Expected, Experts Say
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel on Friday has sent shockwaves through the region, but experts believe it’s unlikely to trigger a direct war with Iran, despite the escalating tensions, Bloomberg reports.
While the Iranian government has vowed to retaliate, analysts believe they will instead focus on rebuilding Hezbollah and maintaining their network of proxies across the Middle East.
“Iran has been weakened and has limited options for escalation,” said a source familiar with US intelligence assessments. “They’re facing a superior military force in Israel, and the US has increased its presence in the region to deter a major attack.”
The assassination comes on the heels of a series of high-profile incidents that have targeted Iranian interests. In April, an Iranian consulate building in Syria was destroyed, prompting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to vow revenge. While a massive but expected assault followed, it fell short of all-out war.
In June, the military chief of Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas’s political head were killed within hours of each other, fueling fears of wider conflict that ultimately did not materialize.
Following Nasrallah’s death, initial statements from Tehran suggest a measured response. Khamenei d that Hezbollah possesses capable replacements for Nasrallah and declared that the “axis of resistance will decide the fate of the region.”
The rhetoric from Tehran reflects the desire of the Iranian leadership to avoid a full-scale war. They will likely focus on bolstering the militant groups they support in the region, ensuring they remain strong while avoiding being drawn into a wider conflict.
However, some experts warn that the situation remains volatile. An Arab official expressed concern over the possibility of Israel targeting additional Hezbollah assets, particularly while the US is preoccupied with its upcoming presidential election.
The assassination follows an earlier attack on Hezbollah’s communication infrastructure, targeting their pagers and walkie talkies. This suggests a strategy aimed at crippling the group’s operational capabilities.
Despite the recent setbacks, Iran’s “axis of resistance” remains a significant force in the region. The group, like Hamas, is considered a terrorist organization by the US and many of its allies, according to the report.
