With the 2024 US Presidential election approaching and tensions escalating across the globe, foreign policy has emerged as a critical battleground in the ongoing race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
In the Middle East, the conflict in Gaza has spilled over into Lebanon, creating a new front for Israel. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has arrived in New York to present his peace plan, just as Russia makes changes to its nuclear doctrine. With so much uncertainty and instability, the next US President faces a daunting task: navigating the country through a world brimming with challenges.
Legislative Affairs Program Director at George Washington University
In an exclusive interview with Wyoming Star, Casey Burgat, Director of the Legislative Affairs program at the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University, has provided insightful analysis into the stark differences between Trump and Harris, exploring their approaches to key international issues in terms of the potential leadership.
Wyoming Star: In your opinion, who is more likely to win the November election, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?
Mr. Burgat: Given the current political landscape, it’s difficult to make a definitive prediction, but both candidates have strengths and challenges. Donald Trump retains a strong, loyal base, especially among Republicans, while Kamala Harris benefits from being the sitting Vice President with potential appeal to key Democratic constituencies. The outcome will likely depend on turnout, key swing states (especially Pennsylvania), and how both candidates address pivotal issues like the economy, healthcare, and social justice leading up to November.
The one thing I am certain of at this stage is it’s going to be a very, very close election.
Wyoming Star: Do you think the recent assassination attempts on Trump are just separate incidents, or is something bigger going on (taking into account the controversial background of the second attacker, Ryan Routh, rather strange actions of both attackers, the role of the Secret Service in Trump’s protection, etc.)?
Mr. Burgat: The recent assassination attempts on Donald Trump, while alarming, appear to be isolated incidents rather than part of a broader conspiracy. However, they do raise concerns about the consequences of the inflamed political rhetoric we’re seeing today.
Political violence is often the unfortunate byproduct of this heightened language, which can embolden individuals to take extreme actions.
The background of individuals like Ryan Routh may suggest deeper personal motives, but the role of the Secret Service and their vigilant protection remains crucial in ensuring the safety of all political figures, regardless of the political climate.
Source: Ryan Routh Facebook
Wyoming Star: What was your take on the September 10 debate between Harris and Trump? Do you think there will be another debate before the election?
Mr. Burgat: The September 10 debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was a stark contrast in styles and policy priorities. Harris focused heavily on issues like reproductive rights, climate change, and healthcare, while Trump leaned into his familiar talking points on immigration, the economy, and law and order. Harris successfully baited Trump into responding to topics most Americans want to see him move on from, including the 2020 election results and crowd sizes.
As for the possibility of another debate, I’d be surprised if both candidates agreed to take the debate stage again. Instead, both campaigns are likely to focus their energies and resources on hitting as many states as possible, with a special focus on the swing states we know will decide the race.
Wyoming Star: What do you think is going to happen in the Middle East, especially with what’s been happening in Lebanon in the last days? What does the US want in the Middle East, and how are Harris and Trump different in their policies in this region? Could the Middle East erupt into a big war, or a peace can still be reached?
The situation in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon, remains volatile, with rising tensions and instability. The US has long sought stability in the region, aiming to secure its interests, including countering terrorism, supporting allies like Israel, and ensuring the free flow of oil. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump differ significantly in their approaches to the region.
Harris is more likely to advocate for diplomacy, multilateralism, and supporting human rights, while Trump emphasizes a more transactional and America-first approach, as seen in his previous administration’s focus on military strength and sanctions.
As for the risk of a larger war, the Middle East has always been a flashpoint for conflict, but diplomacy, regional negotiations, and international efforts can still play a role in preventing a full-scale war.
Achieving lasting peace will require addressing the root causes of instability, such as economic crises and sectarian tensions, but given the current situation, both conflict and peace remain possibilities.
Wyoming Star: How would Harris and Trump handle the war in Ukraine if elected? Could the conflict get worse and maybe even involve NATO as Ukraine seeks the US authorization for the use of US-made long-range missiles against Russia, something that Moscow has warned against?
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would likely take different approaches to the war in Ukraine. Harris, reflecting the Biden administration’s stance, would probably continue to provide strong support to Ukraine, including military aid and diplomatic backing within NATO, while emphasizing coordination with European allies.
Trump, on the other hand, might pursue a more transactional or isolationist approach, possibly seeking a peace deal that would freeze the conflict. He has previously expressed skepticism about NATO and European defense spending, which could lead to a reduced US role in the alliance’s military actions.
The conflict could escalate, especially if Ukraine uses US-made long-range missiles against Russia. Moscow has warned that such actions could provoke a stronger response, potentially drawing NATO into direct involvement.
The risk of further escalation is real, but much will depend on how the next US administration balances military aid, diplomacy, and the geopolitical interests of NATO.
As the November 2024 election approaches, the international landscape remains a turbulent backdrop to the American political stage. The next US president will have to take part in solving these pressing global issues, with their decisions having far-reaching consequences for both the US and the world. The stakes are high, and the choices made in the coming months will shape the course of global affairs for years to come.
