OPEC Maintains Divergent Oil Demand Growth Forecast Through 2050
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reaffirmed its stance that global oil demand will continue to grow until 2050, a position that sets it apart from other major energy forecasters.
In its latest annual World Oil Outlook, OPEC projects that global oil consumption will rise by 18%, reaching 120.1 million barrels per day by mid-century. This outlook contrasts with forecasts from industry players like BP, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and Goldman Sachs, which predict oil demand will peak within the next decade as the world increasingly transitions to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles.
OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, acknowledged the growing challenges posed by climate change but argued that the oil industry remains essential to energy security and development, particularly in emerging markets. The report highlighted that developing nations, including India, Africa, and the Middle East, will drive future demand, as these regions prioritize access to affordable energy.
However, OPEC’s bullish projections raise concerns among climate scientists. According to experts, continued oil demand growth could lead to a rise in global temperatures by 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius, far exceeding the 1.5-degree target set by international climate agreements. The report’s forecasts also contradict the IEA’s call for immediate reductions in fossil fuel use to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.
While OPEC advocates for solutions like carbon capture technology to mitigate emissions, critics argue that such technologies remain underdeveloped and are unlikely to be deployed at the necessary scale. This skepticism was reflected during the launch of OPEC’s report in Brazil, where a Greenpeace protester briefly interrupted the event, underscoring the growing tensions between environmental activists and the oil industry.
Despite this pushback, OPEC insists that oil will remain a key part of the global energy mix for decades to come, as developing economies expand and advanced economies re-evaluate their energy transitions in light of recent energy security concerns.
