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Historian Who Correctly Predicted 9 of 10 Presidential Elections Forecasts Kamala Harris Win

Historian Who Correctly Predicted 9 of 10 Presidential Elections Forecasts Kamala Harris Win
  • PublishedSeptember 9, 2024

Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University known for his remarkably accurate predictions of presidential election outcomes, believes Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the United States in November, Fox News reports.

Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nine out of the last ten presidential elections using his “Keys to the White House” formula, says the Democrats’ decision to rally behind Harris as their candidate was a strategic move that strengthens their chances.

Lichtman developed his “Keys” system in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, based on their analysis of presidential elections dating back to 1860. The system consists of 13 true or false questions, each representing a key factor that can favor one party over another.

Allan Lichtman. Source: Fox News

“If six or more keys go against the White House party, they are predicted losers. Otherwise, they’re predicted winners,” Lichtman explained. He pointed out that his system accurately predicted Donald Trump’s win in 2016.

Lichtman believes that Harris, despite facing potential challenges, will only lose at most five keys, placing her in a winning position. He credits the Democrats’ unified support for Harris as a critical factor in their favor.

“We’ve had an unprecedented situation of a sitting president dropping out on the eve of the convention, and it has affected my keys,” Lichtman said, referencing President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race. “The Democrats lost one key — the incumbency key. But the Democrats finally got smart and united behind Harris, preserving the contest key.”

The “contest key” refers to the absence of a serious challenge for the incumbent party’s nomination. Lichtman further argues that Harris’s presence as the candidate, rather than Biden, has mitigated the potential for protests, further benefiting the Democrats.

“I think having Harris front and center rather than Joe Biden, the policymaker, has dampened enthusiasm for protests which helped salvage a second key, the social unrest key,” he said.