A recent analysis by Bloomberg Economics has raised alarming concerns about the potential for political violence in the United States, placing it among the world’s most vulnerable nations.
The analysis, which draws on a methodology developed by the US government’s Political Instability Task Force, has indicated that the US now ranks third highest among G20 nations for the risk of violent political turmoil in the next year.
While the probability of open civil unrest remains low at 2.9%, it is more than double the risk for democratic peers such as Canada, Germany, and Australia. The analysis links the increased risk to such factors as erosion of democratic institutions, the rise of factional grievances, and a growing national unease based on an example of recent events like assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump.
The analysis has also outlined concerning trend in recent polling, with half of swing state voters expecting some form of violence related to the upcoming election. The model used in the analysis considers both the state of democratic institutions and the level of factionalism within a country’s society. The US, according to the model, sits on the edge of becoming an anocracy, with weak institutions that allow grievances to fester unresolved.
Additionally, the US scores closer to nations like Indonesia, with high levels of factionalism, than to democratic peers like Canada and Japan.
Based on the analysis, the US needs for a renewed focus on strengthening democratic institutions and addressing the underlying societal divisions that are fueling political tensions, the report says.
