The decision of the Supreme Court to dismiss the case of Roe V. Wade was a turning point in the issue of abortion in the country.
So far, Republicans have struggled to take a hard line on abortion issues, but now they have decided to change the rhetoric. Perhaps that is why now we hear less and less categorical statements on this topic.
The Public Religion Research Institute released its regular American Values Survey Thursday, which is an extensive and frequent survey of how Americans feel about a range of issues. In that case it may give us a better understanding of how different issues change over time.
Particularly striking are the data on abortion.
In the past decade, the total number of Americans who said abortion should be illegal in all cases has exceeded almost 2 out of every 10 Americans. But today it is only 8%.
Among Republicans, that figure has fallen from one-quarter of all polled to 11% today. And if you look at the chart, you will see when the sharp decline began in June of this year. This poll was conducted immediately after the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson’s Women’s Health Organization.
Coincidence or not, but 11% of Republicans who say abortion should be illegal in all cases is now equal to the percentage of Republicans who say abortion should be legal in all cases – same 11%.
The conclusions are made despite the fact that many red states have introduced bans on abortion — many of them were adopted as “trigger laws” and did not provide for exceptions even in the case of rape or incest.
Nine states have bans on abortion, except in cases of rape and incest.
It is likely that some of those who oppose a complete ban want an exception only for cases when the pregnancy threatens the life of the mother or her health. For example, a poll conducted this month by NBC News showed that 24% of Republicans oppose exceptions to the rules of rape and incest, and only 14% oppose exceptions when the mother’s health is in serious danger.
But polls have repeatedly shown that the overwhelming majority of Republicans support these exceptions as well — even though lawmakers have refused to include them in their abortion bans. Perhaps it was this circumstance that found its outgrowth in the low level of support for the candidates from the party.
It is important to note that the PRRI survey is not the first to show a significant reduction in support for the strict abolition of abortions. Last year’s Fox News poll showed that only 11% of all respondents and 19% of Republicans said that abortion should always be illegal and have no exceptions. By September, these figures had dropped to 6% and 11%, respectively — very similar to the new PRRI data.
The main question is how much people’s consciousness has actually changed and how much this effect is due to the fact that people suddenly begin to reckon with what their previously professed hard views actually entail. If you say that “abortion is murder,” after all, can you justify murder even in cases of rape and incest?
But for Republicans, the dilemma is the same. They have passed a bunch of laws that are opposed not only by the overwhelming majority of Americans, but now by the overwhelming majority of Republicans. The Democrats are now skillfully using this in their political interests, which will undoubtedly have a beneficial effect on the election results for them.
Although candidates in swing states have tried to stick to the middle ground, Republicans in general have so far shown little desire to deviate from their most extreme laws and add exceptions to the rules on rape and incest. But now they have more evidence that a complete ban on abortion is decidedly unpopular — and perhaps even more unpopular than we thought in the summer.
Recall that on June 24, 2022, the US Supreme Court made a historic decision. However, contrary to popular belief, he did not ban abortion, but declared unconstitutional the 49-year-old precedent in the case of Roe v. Wade.
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Main sources: The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/4OZIP6YJDBCGPKJD6MNHKAGZYA.png&w=916
