HOW WILL EVENTS DEVELOP? 5 SCENARIOS AHEAD OF THE 2022 SENATE ELECTIONS

The 2022 election with the exceedingly tight race for the 50-50 Senate emerging as the main event.

In a week, on November 8, 2022, the main event of the last days will take place – elections to the Senate. It is still unclear who will take the leading number of seats (Republicans are still in the lead in the fight for the hearts of voters)
While it is rather difficult to talk about the results of the race, it is difficult to keep track of many different factors and numerous polls. Not to mention that the situation can change instantly. Around a half-dozen races are expected to decide who controls the chamber, but they could break in any number of different ways.
So, it’s time for some analytics, below we’ll look at several different scenarios for how the most competitive candidates can break down – and what factors could prove to be decisive in the larger battle for the majority.
1. The Conservatives rallied and pushed the Republican Party into the Senate.
Indeed, there is ample evidence that conservative voters have rallied behind some of the lesser-known and divisive GOP candidates. Polls show this happened to Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and perhaps with Blake Masters in Arizona. Right-wing voters who didn’t like them are loving them more—or at least have decided that the Republican Party should go all out to the Senate, no matter which candidate is there.
This was somewhat to be expected — and had been predicted — but the scale of this effect matters.
If conservative voters rally and galvanize, it’s likely the Republican Party will be able to hold off a red-leaning Ohio and a swinging Wisconsin (given Johnson is the incumbent). However, such tactics may not work in swing states where GOP candidates are lagging behind, such as Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. In these states, Democrats have an edge, albeit a small one, according to a FiveThirtyEight poll.
If the Republicans had won both Ohio and Wisconsin, they would probably only need two of the remaining competitive races in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. (That last race, between Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Republican Adam Laxalt, is tight — and candidate problems haven’t loomed as large.)
History shows that a party that does not own the White House often wins in such a state in a midterm year. In essence: if Republicans can just fit the national milieu in these races, they should be able to win the Senate.

2. Trump is costing the Republican Party dearly
Republicans have lost Senate elections before because of bad candidates who managed to ruin their reputation. It’s an all-too-familiar circumstance for the liking of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). He is clearly worried that history will repeat itself again.
Our polarized politics assumes that personalities matter far less than party affiliation. It is expected that none of the GOP candidates this year are likely to underperform like those past ones did. So, for example, Todd Akin lost by double digits even as the GOP carried the state in the 2012 presidential race, which is pretty unfathomable these days.
But these candidates also didn’t cost the GOP the Senate majority back then. In 2022, swings like this could be worth a lot, given the prevailing circumstances where every vote counts.
Most vulnerable states:
• Arizona, where a recent poll showed that more than 60% of voters dislike Masters as a person.
• Pennsylvania, where Oz’s image is still far behind that of Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. And while the latest CNN poll showed Oz’s ratings have risen, the favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is still a revealingly low 38%-55%.
• And Georgia, where Herschel Walker, though not as popular, could face something of a support ceiling. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed his split at 39%-55%.
If the number of these candidates is in double digits or so on Election Day, closing the gap will be much more difficult.
Most likely, the Republicans will leave these swinging seats, given not only the bad candida, but also the antics of Donald Trump.

3. Rising energy prices
The unprecedented rise in fuel prices in recent weeks has again reminded of inflation and economic problems. And there seems to be a significant correlation between them and the current political success of the Democrats.
But it’s also possible the issue won’t play the same everywhere, because gas prices have varied greatly by state.
However, it’s worth noting that the scale of the problem will vary from place to place. In Nevada, for example, gas costs over $5 per gallon, up more than a dollar since last year. It’s also risen in recent weeks in Arizona ($4.33), where it is up nearly a dollar over the past 12 months.
At the same time gas prices in Pennsylvania are about $4 and the increase over the last year has been much less.
In Georgia and North Carolina, they remain fairly stable. In Wisconsin, gas prices have declined in recent weeks (but still higher than last year).
Costlier gas appears most troublesome for Democrats out west, but it could also have a disproportionate impact on the Great Lakes region. If Republicans do better than expected in some regions but not others — or if economic concerns vary from contest to contest — we could be talking a lot about November 9 gas prices.

4. Unpopular abortion law
The US supreme court ruled that abortion is not protected under the constitution, which means states now have the power to regulate the procedure as they see fit.
Thus, some data suggests that abortion could become a major problem in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, perhaps the states Democrats have to work with the most.
Masters once compared abortion to genocide and supported the Fetal Identity Act before abandoning those positions. Walker supported a ban on abortion without any exception. And while Oz tried to be more careful, during the primaries he compared abortion to “murder” and at one point didn’t mention rape and incest while maintaining the mother’s life exception – before later saying that he did support those exceptions. (During a debate Tuesday night, he also awkwardly suggested that the decision to have an abortion should be made by “women, doctors, [and] local political leaders.”
Vance also indicated that he doesn’t support the rape and incest exclusion – and he didn’t back it down like some others did, including as recently as Wednesday – but Ohio is redder than those states, and it looks like he approved leadership.
In Nevada and Wisconsin, Democrats have mostly indicated that Laxalt and Johnson support the repeal of Roe v. Wade.

5. Governor races matter
In recent days, an interesting trend has emerged – in some states there is a significant gap between the results of voting for governor and for the Senate. If so, we could be talking about the resurgence of the so-called “ticket sharing”.
So, in several states, this can help a Republican Senate candidate:
• In Georgia, Walker is more than two points behind on average, with Gov. Brian Kemp leading by more than six.
• In Arizona, Masters trails by more than three points, but GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake leads by a similar margin.
• In New Hampshire, Republican Don Bolduc trails Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) by an average of more than five points, but popular Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is winning by more than 15.
• In Ohio, the Senate race doesn’t yet feature a competitive lead (by a narrow lead by Vance), but popular Gov. Mike DeWine (right) is winning by a wide margin—nearly 20 points, in fact.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.) recently wagered: “I just can’t imagine that there’ll be Kemp-Warnock supporters. I think if you’re going to vote for Kemp, you’re voting for Walker.”
We’ll see.
The only state where this would seem to benefit the Democrats is Pennsylvania, where the Republican Party establishment has largely disowned Doug Mastriano’s failed campaign. There, Oz closed the gap, but Mastriano did not, still more than eight points behind popular state attorney general Josh Shapiro (G).
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Main sources: The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/27/scenarios-senate-2022-midterms/